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By JENNIFER LOVEN
The Associated Press
Friday, April 9, 2010; 12:41 AM PRAGUE -- The nuclear weapons cuts President Barack Obama and Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev signed on Thursday would shrink the Cold War
superpowers' arsenals to the lowest point since the frightening arms
race of the 1960s. But they won't touch the "loose nukes" and suitcase
bombs seen as the real menace in today's age of terrorism.
"This ceremony is a testament to the truth that old adversaries can
forge new partnerships," Obama declared. "It is just one step on a
longer journey." The warheads covered by the treaty are lethal relics of the Cold War,
and even with the planned reductions there will be enough firepower on
each side to devastate the world many times over. And of more immediate
concern are attempts by terrorist groups such as al-Qaida and nations
such as Iran and North Korea to acquire or use nuclear weapons. Obama and Medvedev showed solidarity for a spring showdown with Iran.
And, beginning Monday, leaders of 47 countries will gather in Washington
in an effort to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, crack down on
illicit nuclear trafficking and lock down vulnerable nuclear materials
around the world. Introduced Thursday with trumpet fanfare, the two grinning presidents
sat at an ornate table in Prague's hilltop presidential castle and put
their signatures to a landmark successor to the 1991 Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty. Nearly a year in the making, the "New START" signaled
a bold opening in previously soured U.S.-Russia relations. If ratified
by both nations' legislatures, it will shrink the limit of nuclear
warheads to 1,550 each over seven years, down about a third from the
current ceiling of 2,200. Ratification in the U.S. Senate will hardly be automatic, requiring 67
votes in the 100-member chamber during a congressional election year
when cooperation can be hard to come by. Beyond that, urgent international nuclear tasks still face the two leaders. For example, they are trying to forge agreement among themselves and
four other nations - China, France, Britain, and Germany - on how to
tackle Iran's continued defiance of United Nations demands that it cease
enriching uranium. The West insists Tehran seeks to develop nuclear
weapons; Tehran says it is after peaceful nuclear power. At Obama's side, Medvedev made Russia's support for considering a fourth
round of U.N. sanctions on Iran clearer than ever. "We cannot turn a
blind eye to this," he said of Tehran's intransigence. But that was not the main question heading into the leaders' talks,
which ran overtime to about two hours. At issue, as representatives from
the six partners prepare for what Obama called "ramped-up" discussions
in New York, is how weak any new sanctions regime would need to be to
get Moscow on board - not to mention China, an even more stubborn holdout. Medvedev said sanctions should be "smart" - designed to change behavior,
not to bring down the hardline Iranian government or impose hardship on
Iran's people. The Russian leader said he had outlined for Obama "our
limits for such sanctions," and Obama Russia expert Mike McFaul said
those discussions got very specific. "In all negotiations, people talk about their red lines and their bottom
lines and we negotiate," McFaul said. White House officials would not
reveal details of the private conversation, concerned that it could
threaten progress. But Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov,
said that a total embargo on refined petroleum products into Iran, which
depends heavily on such imports, was out of the question for Moscow. There is talk of hitting refined petroleum product deliveries some other
way, but sanctions on Iran's energy sector may be jettisoned altogether
as too tough for Russia or China. Obama repeated his flat declaration that "strong tough sanctions" will
be agreed to this spring. He said "we will not tolerate" any actions by
Iran that risk a new arms race in the Middle East or threaten the
security of the international community. The president faces another key test in that drive when he meets Chinese
President Hu Jintao in Washington on the sidelines of Monday's 47-nation
summit. Even as the U.S.-Russia deal was signed in Prague, the White House was
deeply engaged in the uncertain Senate ratification fight in Washington. With Obama needing to cajole at least eight Republicans into supporting
the treaty to win the required 67 votes, Brian McKeon, a senior foreign
policy adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, was named to head the
effort. Administration negotiators also began fanning out to lobby
senators, in person and via videoconference from Prague. Fearing potential trouble, Medvedev said Russian lawmakers will
synchronize their moves to ratify the deal on the U.S. timeframe. Both leaders expressed optimism, and Obama emphasized the history of
Senate bipartisanship on arms control matters. But that could be wishful
thinking this year. The GOP could well see an irresistible opening to criticize the broader
security policies of Obama and his Democratic allies. Even if
Republicans don't reject the treaty, they could seek to postpone its
ratification to deny Obama a victory ahead of the November midterm
elections. One potential GOP backer, Richard Lugar of Indiana, a moderate
Republican steeped in nonproliferation issues and the top GOP lawmaker
on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has been curiously quiet. But Republicans are expected to eventually swing behind the treaty if
Obama can promise it won't undercut the nation's ability to set up
missile defenses to protect against an attack from Iran or North Korea.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said the GOP also wants
assurances that the agreement will preserve the nuclear triad, a
reference to the three tiers of the nation's nuclear defense. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., issued a statement welcoming
the treaty and warning Republicans not to "play politics with something
as important as this to our national security." He said he was confident
the agreement would be ratified. Obama said the U.S. wants to get started on more arms-control
negotiations with Russia, seeking larger cuts and ones that target
short-range nuclear weapons as well as those held in reserve and in
storage. None of those are affected by New START. There are many reasons that any follow-on arms reductions will be much
more difficult to achieve, including the missile defense dispute, the
Russians' larger reliance on nuclear weapons in their overall security
strategy and the need to draw in third powers. Asked about the prospects, Konstantin Kosachev, the Kremlin-connected
chief of the foreign affairs committee in the lower house of Russia's
parliament, said it is a nonstarter until the U.S. withdraws its
tactical nuclear weapons from five countries in Europe.
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