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* Denis Campbell and Severin Carrell
* guardian.co.uk, Thursday 30 July 2009 22.49 BST The swine flu pandemic appears to have peaked for the moment but the
virus will return with "a very big surge" in the autumn, the chief
medical officer said today.
Sir Liam Donaldson hailed new data as proof of a "pretty firm downturn"
in the number of people seeking medical help with H1N1 from a GP.
"There's a possibility the virus has had its fill of us for the moment,"
he said. The number of people consulting a doctor with flu-like illness had
fallen from 155.3 for every 100,000 people to 138.2 for every 100,000,
he said. "It's peaked in America, it's peaked in Mexico, it's peaked in
Scotland, so why shouldn't it peak here?" About one in every 158 people
in England has had flu in the current outbreak and 27 have died. School holidays and people being away on summer breaks helped explain
the apparent decline, said Donaldson, adding: "We don't anticipate it
staying down for too long, because we have our own flu season coming up." Official figures from the Health Protection Agency showed that the
number of new cases of swine flu in England last week increased to
110,000, a 10% rise on the previous week. About 150,000 people were also
given the antiviral drug Tamiflu after contacting the National Pandemic
Flu Service, which began operating last Thursday. The Department of
Health said an overlap between the two groups of patients meant it
should not be concluded that 260,000 people were sick with the virus
last week. Indications that the spread of swine flu appeared to be slowing were
supported by the latest figures for Scotland, where the H1N1 outbreak
first began in the UK. The rate of cases was slightly higher than last
week, at 5.5 for every 100,000 people. Health officials said that about 1,500 new cases were detected by
doctors last week, compared with about 1,200 in the previous week, but
the number of people consulting doctors had increased. Four more people in London have died after having swine flu, taking the
total fatalities in the capital to 15, it emerged yesterday. Only brief
details were released, but NHS London said that the victims all had
underlying health conditions and had tested positive for the H1N1 virus. Meanwhile, a 16-year-old British schoolgirl is fighting for her life in
a Greek hospital after contracting the virus. Natasha Newman, from
Highgate, north London, is in a "very serious" condition in Athens after
becoming sick while holidaying on the island of Kefalonia. Dr Zoe Beka, from the Penteli Children's hospital, said: "She is
receiving different treatments including Tamiflu and antibiotics. There
is no doubt that she contracted the illness while in London, but there
was a delay in her receiving treatment."
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