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Health authorities told to set up testing and drug distribution centres
in case of autumn outbreak By Jonathan Owen
Sunday, 21 June 2009
The Independent A medical researcher working to produce a DNA test for swine flu, which
is spreading more quickly in the UK
Primary care trusts are to set up anti-viral drug distribution centres
and swine flu testing clinics amid fears that the infection could spread
out of control. The Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, wrote to health
authorities last week urging hospitals to test all patients who show
signs of flu-like symptoms. He wrote: "Transmission from person to
person in this country is increasingly common. There is evidence that
sporadic cases are arising with no apparent link either to cases
elsewhere in the UK or to travel abroad." The letter followed an earlier warning from Sir Liam that millions of
Britons could fall victim to swine flu in the coming months. Government
officials admitted last night that illness rates from the virus could
reach 50 per cent. Primary care trusts are now being briefed to expect that the pandemic
could affect as much as 40 per cent of the workforce before the end of
the year, with many worried that there could be a surge of cases in the
autumn, according to health industry sources. The Department of Health sought to reassure the public last night. A
spokesman said: "Previous pandemics have seen total illness levels of
25-35 per cent. So our plans are as robust as possible, we have based
them on illness rates of 50 per cent, though we do not anticipate it
being this high in the current pandemic. Based on this figure, the
workforce could be reduced by 15-20 per cent at the pandemic's peak. In
the unlikely event that every school closed, this could rise to 35 per
cent." He said it was impossible to predict when the pandemic would
peak, but added: "As part of ongoing planning, the NHS is being asked to
ensure that antiviral collection points could, if needed, be put into
action in a week." Keen to avoid panic, the Government is careful to present official
statistics showing "laboratory-confirmed" cases, which currently stand
at 2,244. Yet the true scale of infections is far higher than headline
figures suggest. The total number of cases either confirmed by
laboratory tests or "clinically presumed" currently stands at 3,725. Almost 400 cases of swine flu in Britain have occurred as a result of
in-country transmission, according to latest figures from the European
Centre for Disease Control. The virus is continuing to gain ground, with
a number of people falling ill without having been abroad or in contact
with previously confirmed cases – a signal that transmission is "growing
in some areas of the country", according to the Health Protection
Agency. The HPA said: "We would need to have a significant number of
people where you really don't know how they have got it for it to be
classified as sustained community transmission. We are getting closer to
that, but are not there yet." This comes a week after Jacqui Fleming, 38, of Glasgow, became the first
person to die from swine flu outside North America. Since then, health
officials in Birmingham have said they can no longer contain the spread
of the virus, and in Glasgow, a series of swine flu testing clinics have
been set up. Meanwhile, calls to NHS hotlines have almost doubled in the past week.
Latest figures from NHS Direct reveal that 2,356 calls about swine flu
were made on Thursday 18 June, up from 1,280 a week earlier. Under a new scheme that began in June, hundreds of people calling NHS
Direct about swine flu have been sent swab kits to return for testing. Economic toll: Pandemic to cost Britain £42bn £42bn losses are predicted to hit Britain as a result of a three per
cent fall in gross domestic product (GDP) due to the swine flu pandemic,
according to a new report from the Oxford Economics think tank, due to
be released tomorrow. Researchers claim that swine flu could threaten
already fragile businesses and put further strains on financial markets
in what could become a "vicious cycle that postpones the recovery". Deflation is a "significant risk" as a result of the pandemic's impact
on the economy – putting back economic recovery by two years, says the
report. The predictions are based on a 30 per cent infection rate,
should a pandemic begin in October and last for six months. A $2.5 trillion cut in global GDP is a possibility – with a flu outbreak
in the autumn hitting the world economy just as it starts to recover
from the credit crunch.
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