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The key issue is the threat of nuclear proliferation By Con Coughlin
Last Updated: 7:40PM BST 26 May 2009 North Korea has just detonated a nuclear device the same size as the
atom bomb dropped by the Americans on Nagasaki at the end of the Second
World War. But there's no need to panic; not, at least, if you listen to
the diplomatic community.
After all – so goes the argument – what can the North Koreans do with
their home-made bomb? In the unlikely event that they launch a nuclear
attack on their neighbours, such as South Korea or Japan, the country
would be obliterated by a devastating response from the West. As if to
emphasise the point, President Barack Obama yesterday renewed
Washington's pledge to defend its Asian allies in the event of such a
strike. The other mantra we seem constantly to hear from the foreign policy
establishment is that, because of its continued defiance of UN Security
Council resolutions, and the consequent sanctions, the North Korean
regime is weak and isolated, and in no position to threaten anybody.
Indeed, there is a growing body of opinion that imposing further
sanctions would be counter-productive, as it would increase the regime's
paranoia, rather than persuade the country's dictator, Kim Jong Il, to
abandon his Dr Strangelove-like obsession. No wonder the North Koreans celebrated their successful nuclear test
this week by launching a couple of ballistic missiles. With the outside
world bending over backwards not to cause them offence, they are free to
do as they please. The naivety of the West's approach to North Korea was best summed up by
Stephen Bosworth, Mr Obama's special envoy to the region, who declared
he was "relatively relaxed" that the American-led six-nation talks aimed
at bringing Pyongyang to heel have achieved virtually nothing. These
were the talks that were supposed to persuade the state to decommission
its nuclear programme – in return for American aid – following its first
successful test in late 2006. After an initial breakthrough, the North
Koreans reneged on the deal and resumed work on their illicit programme. If the Obama administration is relaxed about this failure, then I
suppose it will take an equally sanguine view of North Korea's attempts
to export its bomb-making expertise to other rogue states, such as Iran
and Syria. For, far from being a debate about one country's regional ambitions, the
key issue concerning Mr Kim's nuclear programme is the risk of increased
proliferation. It was not so long ago that his regime was helping Syria
to build a clandestine reactor. Although the site was destroyed by an
Israeli air strike in 2007, North Korea has maintained close links with
Damascus, and is co-operating on the development of missile systems. Its nuclear and missile technicians also travel regularly to Iran, where
they have provided assistance on a number of programmes. Tehran's
long-range Shahab missile system, which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
claims is capable of hitting Israel, is based on the design of the North
Korean No-Dong missile; North Korean nuclear experts are reported to
have shared the results of their 2006 nuclear test with Iran. For such an indigent nation, the prospect of earning significant sums of
foreign currency is enticing. Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme,
remember, was partly funded by the entrepreneurial skills of Dr A Q
Khan, the nuclear scientist who sold his blueprints to Libya and Iran.
North Korea appears to be following his example, with the same
potentially disastrous consequences for nuclear proliferation. This is
why, rather than playing down the significance of this latest nuclear
test, Western diplomats need to intensify their efforts to curtail North
Korea's activities. The self-fulfilling mood of defeatism to which many diplomats involved
in the talks appear to have succumbed could be reversed, if only the
Obama administration could be persuaded to provide clear and decisive
leadership at the United Nations. For example, sanctions can be a highly effective tool in making regimes
think twice before defying world opinion, so long as they are carefully
targeted and rigorously enforced. One of the main reasons the parlous
state of Iran's economy has emerged as the main campaign issue in next
month's presidential election is because of the impact well-calibrated
UN sanctions have had on the regime's finances. Similar measures – such as targeting the foreign bank accounts of key
officials and restricting their movement abroad – could also prove to be
highly effective against Pyongyang, so long as the Chinese can be
persuaded to lend their active support. Chinese officials tend to take an indulgent view of North Korea's
nuclear brinkmanship. One, who has negotiated with the North Koreans,
recently told me that she saw the country as a "frightened child" that
needed constant reassurance. I prefer to see it as a delinquent teenager that needs a firm hand to
demonstrate the limits of acceptable behaviour. And threatening the
world with nuclear weapons is not the kind of conduct that should be
tolerated by Washington or Beijing.
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